经济学院知识库

黄河是中华民族的“母亲河”，黄河流域承担着防风固沙、水源涵养等重要的生态功能，同时也是我国重要的人口集聚区和粮食主产区。但随着区域内经济、社会和生态的快速发展，其内在的脆弱性问题也日益凸显。黄河流域的脆弱性不仅反映了流域内生态、社会与经济系统的互动，也体现了在自然环境变化和人类活动等多重外部因素作用下区域之间相互影响的结果。因此，深入研究黄河流域经济—社会—生态耦合系统的脆弱性及其影响因素，对于推动流域生态文明建设，实现绿色高质量发展具有重要现实意义。
本文基于黄河流域各省的经济、社会、生态数据构建敏感—恢复—压力框架，优化指标体系后，采用交叉效率DEA模型评估脆弱性水平，并结合H-P滤波分析长期趋势与短期波动。利用标准差椭圆模型探讨脆弱性的空间特征及变化趋势，并基于fsQCA、障碍度与地理探测器模型识别主要影响因素。研究发现：（1）黄河流域经济—社会—生态系统的脆弱性指数在2013—2022年间呈现“上升—下降—上升”的波动性变化。（2）黄河流域经济—社会—生态系统脆弱性的空间分布呈现“中间高两边低”的格局，总体分布模式稳定，但局部区域脆弱性水平呈现扩散趋势。（3）在耦合系统脆弱性中，经济系统影响最大，生态系统次之，社会系统最小。（4）对流域耦合系统脆弱性的空间分布影响前三的分别为：湿地面积占比、人均废水排放量、固定资产投资变化率。湿地面积占比与人均废水排放量的交互、湿地面积占比与城市人口密度的交互以及人均废水排放量与固定资产投资变化率的交互也具有显著影响。
据此，本文提出对策建议：（1）推动甘肃、陕西、山西等省湿地保护与恢复，实施分级保护和定向修复；（2）优化内蒙古、山西等高传统能源消费占比的省份经济结构，减少经济系统脆弱性对整体系统的影响；（3）对流域中部高脆弱性地区（如山西、内蒙古）优先加大生态恢复和经济支持力度，对流域东部（如山东）低脆弱性地区以及流域西部低脆弱性地区（如青海）强化已有优势，针对脆弱性分布特征实施差异化治理政策。

The Yellow River is known as the 'Mother River' of China. The Yellow River Basin plays a crucial role in ecological functions such as windbreak and sand fixation, as well as water conservation.However, with the rapid development of the region's economy, society, and ecology, its inherent vulnerabilities have become increasingly pronounced. The vulnerability of the Yellow River Basin not only reflects the interaction between the ecological, social, and economic systems within the basin but also embodies the result of mutual influences between regions under the impact of external factors such as natural environmental changes and human activities. Therefore, conducting in-depth research on the vulnerability of the economic-social-ecological coupling system of the Yellow River Basin and its influencing factors is of significant practical importance for promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the basin and achieving green and high-quality development.
This study constructs a Sensitivity-Recovery-Pressure (SRP) framework based on economic, social, and ecological data from provinces in the Yellow River Basin. After optimizing the indicator system, a cross-efficiency DEA model is applied to assess vulnerability levels, while H-P filtering is used to analyze long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. The standard deviation ellipse model is employed to examine the spatial characteristics and changing trends of vulnerability. Additionally, major influencing factors are identified using the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), obstacle degree model, and geographical detector model.
The key findings are as follows: (1) The vulnerability index of the economic-social-ecological system in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a fluctuating trend of "increase–decrease–increase" from 2013 to 2022. (2) The spatial distribution of vulnerability follows a pattern of "high in the central region and low on both sides," with a stable overall distribution but a trend of local vulnerability diffusion. (3) Among the coupled system’s vulnerabilities, the economic system has the greatest impact, followed by the ecological system, while the social system has the least influence. (4) The top three factors affecting the spatial distribution of vulnerability in the coupled system are the proportion of wetland area, per capita wastewater discharge, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment. Furthermore, the interactions between wetland area proportion and per capita wastewater discharge, wetland area proportion and urban population density, as well as per capita wastewater discharge and the growth rate of fixed asset investment, also have significant impacts.
Based on these findings, the study proposes the following policy recommendations: (1) Promote wetland conservation and restoration in Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and other regions by implementing hierarchical protection and targeted rehabilitation. (2) Optimize the economic structure of provinces with a high proportion of traditional energy consumption, such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, to reduce the economic system’s impact on overall vulnerability. (3) Prioritize ecological restoration and economic support in highly vulnerable areas (like Shanxi, Neimenggu) in the central basin, while strengthening existing advantages in the less vulnerable eastern (like Shandong) and western regions (like Qinghai). Tailored governance policies should be implemented based on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability distribution.