统计与数据科学学院知识库

可持续发展要求在生态承载能力内实现人类福祉不断提升。自2012年党的十八大将生态文明建设融入“五位一体”发展战略后，我国实现了从单一经济增长导向向多元价值平衡的转变，生态保护与社会可持续发展目标形成深度耦合。黄河流域在我国经济格局与生态屏障中具有不可替代的区位价值，其生态保护与高质量发展也被纳入国家顶层设计上升为国家战略之一。生态福利绩效对协调生态环境保护、经济增长与民生福祉增进具有重要引领指导作用，是黄河流域实现生态保护与高质量发展的关键切入点。在此背景下，如何科学衡量黄河流域生态福利绩效，探索其时空演化趋势与驱动因素成为亟须解决的问题。在此基础之上，探究黄河流域实现可持续发展的优化策略，对于兼顾生态保护与区域高质量发展的目标，既具有重要的理论价值，也有显著的现实意义。鉴于此，本文以黄河流域城市群67座城市为研究单元，结合稳态经济学、可持续发展理论、SEEA-EA、“两山”理论与人地关系地域系统等相关理论，遵循生态福利绩效“研究框架构建-指标体系设计-测度结果分析-时空演化展现-区域差异厘定-驱动因素识别”的逻辑主线，对当前黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效的测度与空间演化特征问题展开了系统的研究。与以往研究相比，本研究更加注重生态系统对人类的惠益，从生态系统服务的视角构建生态福利绩效测度框架，符合当前生态文明建设的主旋律；重视生态福利绩效的内在结构及其空间演变特征，将城市按照不同的内部特征与演化类型进行分类鉴别，最终明确可持续发展的模式及其状态。这将为城市未来的优化方向和发展路径的精准规划提供科学依据。

本文的主要研究内容为：（1）构建生态系统服务视角下的生态福利绩效测度框架与评价模型，采用熵权-TOPSIS与US-NSBM模型对2006—2021年黄河流域城市群的生态福利绩效进行测度，并进一步对其整体趋势、子阶段趋势与内部结构进行分析。（2）结合空间经济理论通过重心-标准差椭圆、莫兰指数方法从全局角度对黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效的时空演化特征进行了分析，利用马尔科夫链转移矩阵、LISA时间路径与LISA时空跃迁等方法对个体演化特征进行了分析。（3）通过采用Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法，并结合核密度估计的分析手段，深入评估了黄河流域城市群在生态福利绩效方面的区域差异，通过运用新古典经济学的绝对收敛与条件收敛框架，从不同维度剖析了黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效的收敛特征及其追赶规律，这不仅深入解析了生态福利绩效的演变轨迹，更为揭示其收敛机制提供了有力支撑。（4）从内外源的角度利用地理探测器模型识别生态福利绩效的驱动因素，解析驱动生态福利绩效提升的影响机理，为相关政策制定者提供参考和依据。

本文的主要结论为：（1）黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效在研究期内有明显上升，但是距离整体实现DEA有效仍然有较大差距。各城市群生态福利绩效表现不一，存在显著的区域差异，整体呈现东高西低的格局。从子阶段的效率分析来看，生态经济阶段各城市群的表现差异较大，而经济福利阶段的差异较小。从内部结构而言，省会和经济发达城市大多处于高生态经济效率-高经济福利效率（H-H）象限中，低生态经济效率-低经济福利效率（L-L）占比高达40%，是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略实现的关键地区。（2）黄河流域城市群整体空间格局呈现扩张的趋势，空间集聚特征凸显，集聚类型在研究期内有所变化，低-低型集聚收缩最为明显。个体上，城市生态福利绩效具有一定的路径依赖性，保持自身状态不变的概率最高，难以实现跨越式发展。此外，研究还基于各城市的生态福利绩效的位序与时空演化特征归纳了高水平协同型、高水平溢散、高水平中心型等七种生态福利绩效时空演化类型。（3）黄河流域城市群的生态福利绩效存在显著差异，子阶段与各城市群的表现各异，部分城市群的区域差异演变表现出追赶趋势，显示出一定的动态收敛特征。收敛结果显示，黄河流域城市群及各个城市群的生态福利绩效以不同的收敛速度趋向于一个稳态增长轨迹。对于各城市群而言，人口密度、产业结构、政府财力、市场化水平和对外开放程度等社会经济因素对生态福利绩效的影响表现出异质性。（4）自然投入转化成经济产出的效率是现阶段黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效的关键内部驱动因素。城镇化、技术水平、产业集聚与对外开放是生态福利绩效的外部驱动因素。各城市群在生态福利绩效的驱动因素上存在一定的异质性。

本研究通过测度框架的构建、生态福利绩效的综合评价、空间演进的特征及其驱动因素四个维度，从多层次、多维度系统分析了黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效的时空分异特征、内部结构演化规律及其核心影响因素，并形成了有针对性的优化建议。这一研究成果不仅深入揭示了黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效的演进过程及其驱动机制，更为制定黄河流域城市群生态福利绩效提升策略提供了科学依据，为实现黄河流域的生态保护目标和高质量发展战略提供了重要的理论支撑和实践参考。

Sustainable development requires the continuous enhancement of human well-being within the limits of ecological carrying capacity. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, ecological civilization construction has been integrated into the "Five-in-One" overall development strategy, shifting the focus from single-minded economic growth to a balanced approach that values multiple dimensions. The Yellow River Basin, with its irreplaceable geographical and ecological significance, has seen its ecological protection and high-quality development elevated to a national strategic priority. Ecological welfare performance (EWP) plays a crucial role in harmonizing environmental conservation, economic growth, and the improvement of people's livelihoods, serving as a key entry point for achieving sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. In this context, it is imperative to scientifically measure the EWP of the Yellow River Basin, explore its spatiotemporal evolution trends, and identify the driving factors. This research not only holds significant theoretical value but also provides practical guidance for balancing ecological protection and high-quality development in the region.

This thesis focuses on 67 cities within the urban clusters of the Yellow River Basin, integrating concepts from steady-state economics, sustainable development theory, the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Ecosystem Accounts (SEEA-EA), the "Two Mountains" theory, and the human-environment relationship system. Following a logical framework of "constructing the research framework – designing the indicator system – analyzing measurement results – presenting spatiotemporal evolution – discerning regional differences – identifying driving factors," the thesis systematically examines the current EWP and its spatial evolution characteristics in the urban clusters of the Yellow River Basin. Compared to previous studies, this research places greater emphasis on the benefits of ecosystems to humans, constructing an EWP measurement framework from the perspective of ecosystem services, aligning with the current emphasis on ecological civilization. It highlights the internal structure and spatial evolution of EWP, categorizing cities into different development models to ultimately identify sustainable development patterns and states. This approach facilitates the targeted determination of future optimization directions and development pathways for these cities.

The main research contents of this thesis are as follows:(1)Constructing a measurement framework and evaluation model for EWP from the perspective of ecosystem services. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS and US-NSBM models are employed to measure the EWP of urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2021, followed by an analysis of overall trends, sub-stage trends, and internal structures.(2)Combining spatial economic theory, the thesis analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of EWP in the Yellow River Basin urban clusters from a global perspective using the centroid-standard deviation ellipse and Moran's I methods. It further examines individual evolution characteristics through methods such as Markov chain transition matrices, LISA temporal paths, and LISA spatiotemporal transitions.(3)Utilizing the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition methods, along with kernel density estimation, the thesis analyzes the regional disparities in EWP among urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin. It discusses the convergence relationships and catching-up characteristics of these urban clusters using absolute and conditional convergence models from neoclassical economics, thereby comprehensively revealing the evolution process and convergence status of EWP.(4)From both internal and external perspectives, the thesis employs a Geodetector model to identify the driving factors of EWP, analyzing the mechanisms that influence the enhancement of EWP, and providing references and foundations for relevant policymakers.

The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)The EWP of urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin shows a significant upward trend during the study period; however, there remains a substantial gap from overall DEA efficiency. The EWP varies among different urban clusters, exhibiting significant regional disparities, with an overall pattern of higher performance in the east and lower performance in the west. From the efficiency analysis of sub-stages, there is considerable variation in performance among urban clusters in the ecological economic stage, while differences are smaller in the economic welfare stage. In terms of internal structure, provincial capitals and economically developed cities predominantly occupy the high ecological economic efficiency-high economic welfare efficiency (H-H) quadrant, while 40% fall into the low ecological economic efficiency-low economic welfare efficiency (L-L) quadrant, marking critical areas for the realization of ecological protection and high-quality development strategies in the Yellow River Basin.(2)The overall spatial pattern of urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin is on an expanding trend, with pronounced spatial agglomeration characteristics. The types of agglomeration have changed during the study period, with low-low type agglomerations showing the most significant contraction. Individually, urban EWP exhibits a degree of path dependency, with the highest probability of maintaining the same state, making it challenging to achieve leapfrog development. Additionally, the study summarizes seven spatiotemporal evolution types of EWP, such as high-level collaborative, high-level dispersive, and high-level centralized types, based on the rankings and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of each city's EWP.(3)There are significant differences in EWP among urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin. The performance of sub-stages and various urban clusters varies, with some urban clusters showing catch-up trends in regional disparities and demonstrating certain dynamic convergence characteristics. Convergence results indicate that EWP in the Yellow River Basin and its urban clusters converge towards a stable growth trajectory at different speeds. For different urban clusters, socio-economic factors such as population density, industrial structure, government financial capacity, level of marketization, and degree of openness exhibit heterogeneous effects on EWP.(4)The efficiency of converting natural inputs into economic outputs is a key internal driving factor for the EWP of urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin at this stage. Urbanization, technological advancement, industrial structure, and industrial agglomeration are external driving factors for EWP. There is considerable heterogeneity in the driving factors of EWP among the urban clusters.

This research comprehensively reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation, internal structures, evolutionary patterns, and driving factors of EWP in the urban clusters of the Yellow River Basin from the perspectives of measurement framework construction, comprehensive evaluation, spatial evolution characteristics, and driving factors. It proposes targeted improvement strategies that can provide references for formulating enhancement strategies for EWP in the urban clusters of the Yellow River Basin, contributing to the realization of ecological protection and high-quality development strategies in the region.