金融学院知识库

随着我国人口老龄化程度持续加深，中国已经步入深度老龄化社会，这一结构性变化对经济发展和金融体系产生深远影响，商业银行盈利模式面临结构性调整挑战。本文聚焦于人口老龄化对商业银行盈利能力的作用机制，通过理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法，探究老龄化背景下银行盈利模式面临的机遇和挑战。选取2010—2023年42家A股上市商业银行为样本，构建双向固定效应模型并引入中介效应检验，实证探究人口老龄化对银行盈利能力的传导路径。

理论层面，基于生命周期假说等理论框架，本文构建“人口结构-银行业务-盈利能力”传导机制模型，揭示老龄化通过储蓄行为变迁、信贷需求萎缩及服务模式转型三重路径影响盈利能力的动态机理。实证层面，本文选取居民储蓄率、贷款总额对数和非利息收入占比作为负债业务、资产业务和中间业务的衡量指标，运用逐步回归法中介效应模型探究了其的中介效应。采用工具变量法缓解内生性问题，并通过稳健性检验强化结论可靠性。

通过研究得出以下结论：第一，人口老龄化显著抑制商业银行盈利能力，其效应在工具变量检验中保持稳健；第二，作用路径呈现三重分化特征：其一，人口老龄化推升储蓄率同并驱动定期存款占比，导致存贷利差收窄，表现为负债结构僵化使得盈利能力下降。其二，贷款总量减少直接压缩利息收入，表现为资产业务收缩导致盈利能力下降。其三，非利息收入占比提升通过财富管理等业务对冲负面冲击，表现为中间业务补偿形成“衰退-补偿”动态平衡；第三，异质性分析显示，资产规模较大、总部位于东部地区及全国性商业银行受老龄化抑制效应更显著。

据此提出政策建议：商业银行需加速布局养老金融产品创新与高龄客群服务，通过资产证券化优化资产负债结构；监管部门应完善差异化政策支持体系，引导东部地区大型银行与社区养老产业深度联动，构建“金融+康养”生态圈，实现社会效益与商业可持续的协同发展。

With the continuous deepening of the aging of China's population, China has entered a deeply aging society. This structural change has a profound impact on the economic development and the financial system, and the profit model of commercial banks faces challenges in structural adjustment. This paper focuses on the mechanism of the impact of population aging on the profitability of commercial banks. By combining theoretical analysis with empirical research, it explores the opportunities and challenges faced by the profit model of banks in the context of aging. Selecting 42 A-share listed commercial banks from 2010 to 2023 as samples, a two-way fixed effects model is constructed and a mediating effect test is introduced to empirically explore the transmission path of population aging on the profitability of banks.

At the theoretical level, based on theoretical frameworks such as the life cycle hypothesis, this paper constructs a transmission mechanism model of "population structure - banking business - profitability", revealing the dynamic mechanism by which aging affects profitability through three paths: changes in savings behavior, the shrinkage of credit demand, and the transformation of service models. At the empirical level, this paper selects the residents' savings rate, the logarithm of the total loan amount, and the proportion of non-interest income as the measurement indicators of liability business, asset business, and intermediate business, and uses the mediating effect model of the stepwise regression method to explore their mediating effects. The instrumental variable method is adopted to alleviate the endogeneity problem, and the reliability of the conclusions is strengthened through robustness tests.

Through research, the following conclusions are drawn: First, population aging significantly inhibits the profitability of commercial banks, and its effect remains robust in the instrumental variable test; Second, the path of action presents three characteristics of differentiation: Firstly, population aging pushes up the savings rate and drives the proportion of time deposits, leading to a narrowing of the deposit-loan spread and a decline in profitability due to the rigidity of the liability structure. Secondly, the reduction in the total loan amount directly compresses the interest income, leading to a decline in profitability due to the contraction of asset business. Thirdly, the increase in the proportion of non-interest income hedges against negative impacts through wealth management and other businesses, and forms a dynamic balance of "recession-compensation" through the compensation of intermediate business; Third, the heterogeneity analysis shows that commercial banks with larger asset sizes, headquartered in the eastern region, and national commercial banks are more significantly inhibited by aging.

Accordingly, policy recommendations are put forward: Commercial banks need to accelerate the layout of innovative pension financial products and services for the elderly customer group, and optimize the asset-liability structure through asset securitization; Regulatory authorities should improve the differentiated policy support system, guide large banks in the eastern region to deeply link with the community pension industry, build a "finance + health care" ecosystem, and achieve the coordinated development of social benefits and commercial sustainability.