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全媒体时代，社交网络成为最重要的旅游信息源，微博、微信、短视频平台等新媒体形式作为信息传播的重要载体，能够迅速将旅游危机事件相关信息传播给公众，并引发进一步的传播与讨论。信息传播由单向线性传播转变为多主体的互动传播，为公众在线参与危机传播提供了新的机会和渠道，引致旅游危机事件呈爆发式增长、裂变式传播的态势。此外，社交媒体的广泛应用加剧了各类危机事件的传播和扩散，旅游危机事件经由各类媒体的报道在网络持续发酵后频繁地形成负面网络舆情，这从根本上加大了旅游危机事件网络舆情的管理难度。因此，洞悉旅游危机事件网络舆情传播对旅游目的地的影响，和旅游目的地在各阶段所处的危机情境，并在恰当的时间以适配策略高效应对和化解旅游危机事件网络舆情，是旅游业在发展中亟待解决的现实难题。

本研究基于S-O-R理论、网络舆情传播的四阶段理论和情境危机传播理论，通过情境实验探究了旅游危机事件网络舆情传播中媒体报道对游客出游意愿的动态影响和机制，进一步探究了网络舆情传播的不同阶段旅游目的地所处的危机情境和最佳应对时机和策略。研究发现：（1）无论是能力型危机事件还是道德型危机事件，媒体正面报道均通过游客风险感知和旅游目的地形象感知显著影响了游客出游意愿，并且，信息获取方式在能力型危机事件中调节了媒体报道对游客风险感知和游客出游意愿的影响，该效应在道德型危机事件中则不显著；（2）能力型危机事件发生后，游客出游意愿先下降，并在第2天达到最低值后缓慢回升，而在道德型危机事件中则一直处于低位，无法回升到危机前的水平；（3）相较于能力型危机事件，道德型危机事件无论经媒体正面报道或负面报道均处于较强的危机情境，因此在不同的策略的应对效果中，重塑策略的效果最佳，并且从动态角度，两种危机事件发生后的第2天均是最佳应对时机。 本研究结合旅游学、传播学和心理学等多学科理论，形成跨学科的研究视角和方法，丰富了旅游危机管理和网络舆情传播领域研究方法，为旅游危机管理和网络舆情传播领域的研究提供了更为全面和深刻的视角，弥补了关于旅游危机事件网络舆情传播研究在动态视角的空缺。

In the all media environment of "everyone is a media", social networks have become the most important source of tourism information. New media forms such as Weibo, WeChat, and short video platforms serve as important carriers of information dissemination, which can quickly spread information related to tourism crisis events to the public and trigger further dissemination and discussion. The transformation of information dissemination from one-way linear dissemination to multi-party interactive dissemination has provided new opportunities and channels for the public to participate in crisis communication online, leading to an explosive growth and fission of tourism crisis events. The widespread application of social media has intensified the dissemination and diffusion of various crisis events. Understanding the dissemination characteristics and influencing factors of online public opinion on tourism crisis events, and efficiently responding to and resolving online public opinion on tourism crisis events with appropriate strategies at the right time, is an urgent practical problem that needs to be solved in the development of the tourism industry. In addition, tourism crisis events have frequently formed negative online public opinion after continuous fermentation through various media reports, which fundamentally increases the difficulty of managing online public opinion on tourism crisis events.

Based on the S-O-R theory, the four stage theory of online public opinion communication and the situational crisis communication theory, this paper dynamically tracks 502 samples through experimental methods, and finds that: (1) whether it is a competency crisis or a moral crisis, positive media reports significantly affect tourists' travel intention through tourists' risk perception and tourism destination image perception, and the way of information acquisition moderates the impact of media reports on tourists' risk perception and travel intention in competency crisis events, but this effect is not significant in moral crisis events; (2) After the occurrence of a capability crisis event, tourists' willingness to travel first decreases and slowly recovers after reaching its lowest value on the second day, while in a moral crisis event, it remains at a low level and cannot recover to the pre crisis level; (3) Compared to competency based crisis events, ethical crisis events are in a stronger crisis situation regardless of whether they are positively or negatively reported by the media. Therefore, among different strategies for response, the reshaping strategy has the best effect, and from a dynamic perspective, the second day after the occurrence of both crisis events is the best time for response.

This article combines interdisciplinary research in tourism, communication, and psychology to deepen and refine the research in the field of online public opinion on tourism crisis events. The research conclusion clarifies the impact mechanism of media coverage on tourists' travel intentions in crisis event network public opinion dissemination from a dynamic perspective, as well as the timing and strategy choices for tourism destinations to respond to crisis event network public opinion, filling the gap in research on tourism crisis event network public opinion dissemination from a dynamic perspective.