税制结构对城乡居民消费的影响效应研究 --基于 260 个地级市数据的实证考察

作者	陶慧芳
姓名汉语拼音	taohuifang
学号	2021000004023
培养单位	兰州财经大学
电话	13920311937
电子邮件	18109409240@163.com
入学年份	2021-9
学位类别	专业硕士
培养级别	硕士研究生
一级学科名称	应用经济学
学科代码	0253
第一导师姓名	王彦平
第一导师姓名汉语拼音	wangyanping
第一导师单位	兰州财经大学财政与税务学院
第一导师职称	副教授
题名	税制结构对城乡居民消费的影响效应研究 --基于 260 个地级市数据的实证考察
英文题名	Study on the Influence of Tax Structure on Urban and Rural Residents' Consumption -Empirical investigation based on the data of 260 prefecture-level cities
关键词	税制结构居民消费直接税间接税
外文关键词	Tax structure ; Direct tax ; Indirect tax ; Residents consumption
摘要	党的二十大报告明确提出，要着力扩大内需，增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用，将提升消费信心，扩大城乡居民消费放在优化社会经济发展格局、推进社会经济健康发展工作的关键位置。积极构建新发展格局是中央政府针对当前全球“百年未有之大变局”所做出的关键决策消费，特别是居民消费，对于推动经济增长具有举足轻重的作用，不仅能有效缓解外部冲击和外需下滑对我国经济的负面影响，还是保障我国经济平稳运行和社会大局稳定的重要因素。在当前贸易顺差难以持续且投资疲软的双重挑战下，必须充分发挥消费在稳定经济和拉动经济增长中的基础性作用。这需要通过提高居民收入来刺激消费，通过终端需求来驱动有效供给，实现扩大内需战略与供给侧结构性改革的深度融合。科学合理的税制结构以优化配置各税种的关系为目标路，设计科学有效的税制结构也成为当前经济内需动力不足、刺激居民消费的有效选择。本文遵循“理论阐述、机制解析、实证研究、现状探讨、政策建议”的逻辑框架，系统介绍了税制结构与居民消费的基础理论。进而，详细阐释了税制结构如何通过收入效应、调节收入分配及影响商品服务价格等途径来影响居民消费行为。并通过构建实证模型具体分析了税制结构与城镇、农村居民消费的关系，以期为进一步优化税制改革提供切实可行的建议。在此基础上，通过收集并分析相关数据，深入探讨我国税制结构与城乡居民消费的现状，最后提出税制结构促进城乡居民消费的具体政策建议。此外，本文还将全国数据细分为东南、东北、中部及西北四大区域进行分样本回归分析，以验证该影响的区域差异性。结合现状与实证研究的深入分析，本文揭示了当前税制在刺激居民消费方面面临的现状难题，在一定程度上遏制了居民的消费意愿。进一步地，实证数据表明，企业所得税对居民消费具有显著的正面推动作用，而个人所得税的影响并不明显，增值税对城镇居民和农村居民的消费行为均产生了显著的抑制作用。通过理论分析与实证检验，本文提出了针对税制结构优化的建议。首先，强化直接税体系作用，切实扩大城乡居民消费规模；其次，深入调整间接税体系，有效释放城乡居民消费潜力；再次，深化收入分配改革，稳步提振城乡居民消费预期。
英文摘要	The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly puts forward the need to focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the basic role of consumption in economic development, and puts on the enhancement of consumer confidence and the expansion of urban and rural consumption in the key of optimizing the pattern of socio-economic development and promoting the healthy development of the socio-economic work.Actively building new development pattern is a key decision made by the central government in response to the current global “great changes that have not occurred in a hundred years” Consumption, especially consumption, plays a pivotal role in promoting economic growth, not only can effectively mitigate the negative impact of external shocks and the downturn in foreign demand on China's economy, but also to ensure the smooth operation of China's economy and social stability is an important factor. It is an important factor in ensuring the stable operation of China's economy and social stability. Under the current dual challenges of unsustainable trade surplus and weak investment, it is necessary to give full play to the fundamental role of consumption in stabilizing the economy and stimulating economic growth. This requires stimulating consumption by raising residents' incomes, driving effective supply through end demand, and realizing the in-depth integration of the strategy of expanding domestic demand andsupply-side structural reform. Scientific and reasonable tax structure to optimize the allocation of the relationship between the various types of taxes as the goal of the road, the design of a scientific and effective tax structure has become an effective choice to stimulate consumption in the current economy, which is not enough to stimulate domestic demand. This paper follows the logical framework of “theoretical elaboration, mechanism analysis, empirical research, status quo discussion, and policy recommendations”, and systematically introduces the basic theories of tax structure and residents' consumption. Then, it explains in detail how the tax structure affects residents' consumption behavior through income effect, regulating income distribution and influencing the price of goods and services. The relationship between tax structure and urban and rural residents' consumption is also analyzed by constructing an empirical model, with a view to providing practical suggestions for further optimizing the tax reform. On this basis, the current situation of China's tax structure and urban and rural residents' consumption is discussed in depth by collecting and analyzing relevant data, and finally, specific policy suggestions are put forward to promote urban and rural residents' consumption by tax structure. In addition, this paper also subdivided the national data into four major regions, namely, southeast, northeast, central and northwest for sub-sample regression analysis, in order to verify the regional variabilityof this impact. Combining in-depth analysis of the current situation andempirical research, this paper reveals that the current tax system is facing the current difficulties in stimulating residents' consumption, which to a certain extent curbs residents' willingness to consume. Further, the empirical data show that corporate income tax has a significant positive driving effect on residents' consumption, while the effect of personal income tax is not obvious, and value-added tax has a significant inhibitory effect on the consumption behavior of both urban and rural residents. Through theoretical analysis and empirical tests, this paper puts forward suggestions for optimizing the tax structure. Firstly, strengthen the role of direct tax system to effectively expand the consumption scale of urban and rural residents; secondly, deeply adjust the indirect tax system to effectively release the consumption potential of urban and rural residents; and thirdly, deepen the reform of income distribution to steadily boost the consumption expectations of urban and rural residents.
学位类型	硕士
答辩日期	2024-12
学位授予地点	甘肃省兰州市
语种	中文
论文总页数	71
参考文献总数	60
馆藏号	0004732
保密级别	公开
中图分类号	F810.4/86
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/39145
专题	财税与公共管理学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陶慧芳. 税制结构对城乡居民消费的影响效应研究 --基于 260 个地级市数据的实证考察[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2024.

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