会计学院知识库

伴随着社会经济水平的提高，化石燃料被消耗的越来越多，气候变暖问题愈加严重，严重影响人类健康发展，各国已经发现环境问题的严重性，为了进行有效的碳减排，世界各国实施了各种计划，我国在2021年7月份建立了全国碳排放权交易市场，碳排放权交易价格是其重要组成部分，其价格波动影响着整个市场的变化。因此，研究 碳排放权价值的变动规律有助于指导利益相关者进行科学决策。

基于上述目的，本文通过文献研究法以及案例分析法来研究碳排放权的价值评估。先是通过文献研究法从碳排放权的来源以及从法学、经济学、会计学的角度对碳排放权进行全方位论述，得到本文研究的碳排放权的所属概念范围，然后针对碳排放权价值评估进行文献梳理，根据不同研究阶段和研究方向对估值方法、估值模型以及碳排放权的影响因素进行梳理，最终选择利用影响因素分析建立多元线性回归估值模型，对2022年12月31日国内碳排放市场上碳排放权的价值进行评估，得到当日的碳排放权价格的预测值，然后根据大唐国际发电股份有限公司的碳排放、减排举措等具体情况进行案例分析。经过研究，得到以下结论：能源价格、季节对碳排放权价值的影响较大，科学技术发展以及国外碳排放权的价格对国内碳排放权价格存在负作用，而汇率因素对碳排放权价值影响不大，这可能是由于碳排放权的价格受到多种因素的影响，所以汇率因素对碳排放权价值的影响可能会被抵消掉。另外，在研究过程中发现国内科学技术的研究与应用实现存在一定程度的割裂，这其中可能存在某些原因。随后本文针对上述结论提出了合理建议。

该研究的创新点在于利用多元线性回归模型提出了一种新的碳排放权估值模型，该模型考虑了影响碳排放权价值的多种因素，可以为碳排放权的定价和交易提供参考依据。研究贡献在于该模型可以有效地捕捉市场上碳排放权价格变化的内在规律。这样，在决策中就可以更好地反映市场的实际情况，从而提高决策的准确性和有效性。同时，利用影响因素构建碳排放权估值模型还可以为研究人员提供一个统一的框架，使得在研究不同的碳排放权价格变化趋势时，可以更方便地比较和分析结果。

With the development of economy, human beings consume a large amount of coal, oil, natural gas and other fossil fuels in the process of production and life, leading to global warming and threatening the healthy development of human society. Countries around the world have also realized the seriousness of the problem. In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions, countries around the world have implemented various plans. China established a national carbon emission trading market in July 2021, and the carbon emission trading price is an important part of it, and its price fluctuations affect the change of the whole market. The study of carbon trading price trend is helpful to explore the unique price decision mechanism of carbon trading market and better guide the behavior and decision of carbon market participants.

Based on the above purpose, this paper studies the value assessment of carbon emission right through literature research method and case analysis method. First, through the literature research method, we comprehensively discuss the carbon emission right from the source of carbon emission right and from the perspective of law, economics and accounting, Get the concept scope of the carbon emission rights studied in this paper, Then, the value assessment of carbon emission rights, According to different research stages and research directions, the valuation method, valuation model and carbon emission rights are factors, The final choice is to establish a multiple linear regression valuation model using influencing factor analysis, To evaluate the value of carbon emission rights in the domestic carbon emission market on December 31,2022, To obtain the forecast value of the carbon emission right price of the day, Then according to the Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd. carbon emission, emission reduction measures and other specific conditions for case analysis.

After the above research, get the following conclusion: energy price, season has greater influence on the value of carbon emissions, science and technology development and foreign carbon emissions price negative on domestic carbon emissions price, and exchange rate factors on carbon emissions value, this may be due to the price of carbon emissions affected by a variety of factors, so the influence on the value of carbon emissions may be offset. In addition, in the process of research, it is found that there is a certain degree of separation between the research and application of domestic science and technology, which may have some reasons. Subsequently, this paper puts forward reasonable suggestions for the above conclusions.

The research contribution of this paper is to propose a new valuation model using multiple linear regression model, which considers many factors affecting the value of carbon emission rights and can provide reference for the pricing and trading of carbon emission rights. The proposed model can effectively capture the internal law of carbon emission right price change in the market. In this way, the actual situation of the market can be better reflected in the decision, so as to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the decision. At the same time, the construction of carbon emission right valuation model using influencing factors can also provide a unified framework for researchers, making it more convenient to compare and analyze the results when studying different trends of carbon emission right price.