统计与数据科学学院知识库

改革开放以来，我国制造业核心竞争力显著增强，制造业产品的全球产业链与供应链中的地位持续攀升。党的二十大中强调要坚定不移建设制造强国。制造业作为我国国民经济的支柱产业，其韧性对整个国民经济的安全稳定具有重要作用。随着传统制造业在数字时代日渐式微，数字经济通过产业数字化和数字产业化对我国制造业业体系产生深刻变革。基于此，研究数字经济对制造业韧性的影响，对于实现建设“制造强国”战略目标具有重要意义。

本文将数字经济与制造业韧性纳入同一个分析框架中，首先从理论层面分析了数字经济提升制造业韧性的直接效应、作用机制与空间效应并提出相应假设，其次，根据已有研究，对中国数字经济与制造业水平进行统计测度，并综合运用kernel密度分析、热点分析以及社会网络分析法，解析二者的整体发展趋势、空间相关性与差异。最后，本文基于2011~2021年中国 285 个城市的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、面板门槛模型、中介效应模型、面板分位数模型和空间杜宾模型等计量模型对上文假设进行实证检验。研究发现：首先，近年来数字经济与制造业韧性不断提升，但总体水平不高，有轻微的多极化现象，空间关联网络存在一定的等级梯度，以及存在明显的空间正自相关特性并呈现高度集聚现象。其次，数字经济可以显著提升制造业韧性水平；制造业布局重组与企业家精神是实现数字经济提升制造业韧性的关键作用机制；数字经济对制造业韧性的提升作用在城市规模层面与不同制造业韧性之间表现出显著的异质性；随着制造业数字化水平的提高，数字经济对制造业韧性表现出更强劲的提升作用，以及数字经济对制造业韧性的影响存在显著的空间溢出效应。

对此提出建议：(1)重视数字经济对制造业韧性的提升作用，加深制造业实体经济与数字经济的融合；(2) 加大高等教育投入，树立数字化思维，引导和帮助制造企业深化数字化转型，打通数字经济提升制造业韧性的传导机制；(3)数字鸿沟问题上，采取差异化发展策略，推动制造业产业结构重组，形成优势互补、富有韧性的制造业区域协调发展。

Since the reform and opening up, the core competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry has significantly increased, and the position of manufacturing products in the global industrial chain and supply chain has continued to rise. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to firmly build a strong manufacturing country. As a pillar industry of China's national economy, the resilience of the manufacturing industry plays an important role in the security and stability of the entire national economy. With the gradual decline of traditional manufacturing in the digital age, the digital economy has brought profound changes to China's manufacturing system through industrial digitization and digital industrialization. Based on this, studying the impact of the digital economy on the resilience of the manufacturing industry is of great significance for achieving the strategic goal of building a "manufacturing powerhouse".

This article integrates the digital economy and manufacturing resilience into the same analytical framework. Firstly, it analyzes the direct effects, mechanisms, and spatial effects of the digital economy in enhancing manufacturing resilience from a theoretical perspective, and proposes corresponding hypotheses. Secondly, based on existing research, it statistically measures the level of China's digital economy and manufacturing industry, and comprehensively uses kernel density analysis, hotspot analysis, and social network analysis methods to analyze the overall development trend, spatial correlation, and differences between the two. Finally, based on panel data from 285 cities in China from 2011 to 2021, this article uses econometric models such as bidirectional fixed effects model, panel threshold model, mediation effect model, panel quantile model, and spatial Durbin model to empirically test the hypotheses mentioned above. Research has found that, firstly, in recent years, the resilience of the digital economy and manufacturing industry has been continuously improving, but the overall level is not high, the uneven development gap has widened, there is a slight multipolarity phenomenon, there is a certain level gradient in the spatial correlation network, and there is a clear spatial positive autocorrelation characteristic and a high degree of agglomeration phenomenon. Secondly, the digital economy can significantly enhance the resilience level of the manufacturing industry; The restructuring of manufacturing layout and entrepreneurial spirit are the key mechanisms to enhance the resilience of the manufacturing industry through the digital economy; The role of digital economy in enhancing the resilience of manufacturing industry shows significant heterogeneity at the level of urban scale and different manufacturing resilience; With the improvement of digitalization level in manufacturing, the digital economy has shown a stronger enhancing effect on manufacturing resilience, and there is a significant spatial spillover effect of the digital economy on manufacturing resilience.

Suggestions for this: (1)Pay attention to the role of the digital economy in enhancing the resilience of the manufacturing industry, and deepen the integration of the real economy and the digital economy in the manufacturing industry; (2)Enhance investment in higher education, establish digital thinking, guide and assist manufacturing enterprises in deepening digital transformation, and establish a transmission mechanism for enhancing the resilience of the manufacturing industry through the digital economy; (3)On the issue of the digital divide, adopting differentiated development strategies, promoting the restructuring of the manufacturing industry structure, and forming a coordinated development of manufacturing regions with complementary advantages and resilience.