| 英文摘要 | Abstract
Under the global trend of financial integration, many countries view capital account liberalization as a crucial strategic tool to promote economic development. It enhances the efficiency of global capital allocation, facilitates the improvement of financial systems, and contributes to economic prosperity. However, the process of capital account liberalization also brings about uncertainty in capital flows. Research has shown that during the process of capital account liberalization, worldwide or regional financial crises have occurred repeatedly. Therefore, as we progress towards capital account liberalization, it is essential to pay attention to its potential impact on financial security. The mechanisms of how capital account liberalization affects financial security and how to promote this process in an orderly and stable manner have become the focus of intense academic discussions. These studies not only concern the overall economic development of various countries, but also have profound research significance for China's expanding capital account liberalization efforts.
Firstly, through theoretical research, this paper discovers that capital account openness has a double-edged sword characteristic on financial security. It also points out that the impact of financial development level on this relationship exhibits a certain threshold effect, and proposes research hypotheses based on this. In addition, starting from the exogenous and endogenous financial security levels, this paper selects data from 71 sample countries from 2010 to 2022. Based on principal component analysis, the financial security level is measured. The study finds that the financial security level of developed countries is significantly higher than that of developing countries, and the basic trend of financial security level in developing countries is consistent.Secondly, this paper selects global cross-country panel data covering 71 countries from 2010 to 2022, and conducts empirical analysis using panel models and threshold models. The results show that, firstly, capital account openness has a positive impact on financial security. This conclusion is reliable after robustness tests such as changing measurement indicators, changing the sample time span, and eliminating extreme sample values. The impact of capital account openness on financial security is constrained by the level of financial development and exhibits obvious threshold effect characteristics. Secondly, further analysis reveals that the development level of financial institutions has a positive impact on the relationship between the two when passing a single threshold, while the development level of the financial market only has a positive impact on the relationship when passing the second threshold. This indicates that market construction is a long-lasting and sustained process to be effective, while the positive impact of financial institution development on the two will emerge earlier. Thirdly, through heterogeneity analysis, it is found that when the sample countries are developed countries, the impact of capital account openness on financial security is still positive. When the sample countries are developing countries, although the impact of capital account openness on them is still positive, the impact is not significant. At the same time, when the sample countries are classified according to institutional quality, in the sample of countries with higher institutional quality, the positive effect of capital account openness on financial security is still established.Finally, this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for China to promote capital account openness in an orderly manner and maintain financial security from aspects such as improving financial market construction and improving the financial market supervision system. |
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