国际经济与贸易学院知识库

       近年来，数字经济的高速发展不仅显著地影响了生产模式，也改变了就业的方式和性质，各国学者和政府部门对这种变革表现出浓厚兴趣并展开了深入研究。以往文献主要聚焦数字经济对就业规模与就业结构的影响，但忽略了数字经济对不同产业，以及产业内部不同行业影响的差异性，影响了学术研究的全面性。因此，本论文以经济最发达国家－－美国的数字经济发展对就业的影响问题为研究对象，主要从数字经济发展引致产业升级变迁的角度研究美国数字经济发展对不同产业部门及同一产业内部就业变化的影响，旨在扩展就业问题的理论研究空间，并对包括我国在内的世界各国在数字经济大发展条件下制定不同产业差异化的就业政策提供理论依据。
       本文在相关文献综述的基础上，分析了数字经济促进产业升级对就业结构的影响机制，描述了美国数字经济、产业升级与就业发展现状，使用向量自回归方法实证研究了美国数字经济发展对三次产业以及制造业内部高、低技术行业就业的影响，并通过Bootstrap法检验了产业升级对美国数字经济影响就业的中介作用。研究表明：第一，数字经济发展对劳动力的就业需求既有替代效应又有创造效应。第二，数字经济发展对产业升级具有积极的促进作用，进而对劳动力在不同产业之间和同一产业内部不同行业之间的就业产生不同影响。第三，美国数字经济发展目前处于较高水平，就业人数略有增加。其中，第三产业的GDP贡献率高、就业占比大，仍在稳步增加。第四，实证结果显示美国数字经济发展对第一产业的就业占比影响不明显，贡献率较低；对第二产业的就业总体为负向效应，其中对低端制造业为负向效应，短期内对高端制造业为正向效应，但长期会减少高端制造业就业占比；对第三产业的就业具有较大的正向效应，贡献率随时间变化显著提升。据此，本文结合我国就业实际国情和产业发展现状与未来趋势，总结了我国可借鉴的经验及其对我国数字经济发展条件下就业政策制定的启示，主要有：加快发展数字经济，提升就业机会；推进产业数字化进程，激励企业进行数字化转型；因地制宜制定产业、就业政策；加强人员培训和进修，积极应对新行业的就业需求。

In recent years, the rapid development of digital economy has not only significantly affected the mode of production, but also changed the way and nature of employment. Scholars and government departments all over the world have shown strong interest in this change and conducted in-depth research. Previous literature mainly focused on the impact of digital economy on employment scale and employment structure, but ignored the differences of digital economy on different industries and different industries within industries, which affected the comprehensiveness of academic research. Therefore, this paper takes the influence of digital economy development on employment in the most developed country-the United States as the research object, and mainly studies the influence of digital economy development in the United States on employment changes in different industrial sectors and within the same industry from the perspective of industrial upgrading and changes caused by digital economy development, aiming at expanding the theoretical research space of employment problems and providing theoretical basis for all countries in the world, including China, to formulate employment policies with different industries under the condition of great development of digital economy.
       On the basis of literature review, this paper analyzes the mechanism of digital economy promoting industrial upgrading to employment structure, describes the current situation of digital economy, industrial upgrading and employment development in the United States, empirically studies the impact of digital economy development in the United States on employment in three industries and high-and low-tech industries in manufacturing industry by using vector autoregressive method, and tests the mediating effect of industrial upgrading on employment of digital economy in the United States by Bootstrap method. The research shows that: firstly, the development of digital economy has both substitution and creation effects on the employment demand of labor force. Second, the development of digital economy has a positive role in promoting industrial upgrading, and then it has different effects on the employment of labor between different industries and between different industries within the same industry. Third, the development of the digital economy in the United States is currently at a high level, and the number of employed people has increased slightly. Among them, the tertiary industry has a high contribution rate to GDP and a large proportion of employment, which is still increasing steadily. Fourthly, the empirical results show that the development of digital economy in the United States has no obvious influence on the employment ratio of the primary industry, and its contribution rate is low; The employment of the secondary industry has a negative effect on the whole, including a negative effect on the low-end manufacturing industry and a positive effect on the high-end manufacturing industry in the short term, but it will reduce the employment ratio of the high-end manufacturing industry in the long run; It has a great positive effect on the employment of the tertiary industry, and the contribution rate has increased significantly with time. Based on this, this paper summarizes the experience that China can learn from and its enlightenment to the employment policy formulation under the development of digital economy in China, combining the actual national conditions of employment and the present situation and future trend of industrial development in China, mainly including: speeding up the development of digital economy and improving employment opportunities; Promote the process of industrial digitalization and encourage enterprises to carry out digital transformation; Formulate industrial and employment policies according to local conditions; Strengthen personnel training and further study, and actively respond to the employment needs of new industries.