金融学院知识库

As international financial integration continues to accelerate, interconnectivity among financial institutions, markets and systems has increased significantly, international economic relations have become closer, and financial dependence has remained high and volatile. In addition, the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the uncertainty over the interest rate policy of the United States and the trend of the United States dollar have led to increased market volatility, further exacerbating the financing pressures on countries dependent on external debt. In this context, whether the development strategy of a country's financial sector relies more on domestic or foreign countries depends to a large extent on the impact of financial dependence on a country's economic growth, so this paper examines this issue to provide a reference basis for the development path of a country's financial sector.

The thesis firstly defines the concept of financial dependence, on the basis of which the domestic and foreign studies on the relationship between financial dependence and economic growth are sorted out, and it is found that there are two conclusions that financial dependence is favorable to economic growth and unfavorable to economic growth. Then, based on the theoretical basis of economic interdependence theory, international debt theory, financial deepening theory and financial inhibition theory, the thesis explores the theoretical mechanism of financial dependence affecting economic growth on the basis of analyzing the financial dependence and economic growth of major economies, and concludes that financial dependence affects economic growth mainly through monetary policy, economic fluctuations and financial markets: the higher the financial dependence, the more the country autonomously formulates monetary policy, the more the country's financial dependence is affected. The higher the degree of financial dependence, the worse the country's ability to independently formulate monetary policy and carry out macroeconomic control, which is not conducive to economic growth; the higher the degree of financial dependence, the more a country's economy is affected by other countries and the international community, and the higher the economic fluctuations, which is not conducive to economic growth; and the higher the degree of financial dependence, the more volatile a country's financial market is, which is not conducive to economic growth.

Then, the paper constructs a fixed effects model with panel data of 94 countries around the world for the period 2000-2022 as a sample to empirically test the impact of financial dependence on economic growth and the path of the impact, and conducts a heterogeneity test for different economies. The empirical study finds that the increase in financial dependence has a negative impact on economic growth, both in general and separately from the three categories of economies with different levels of development, namely, developed economies, transition economies and developing economies, in which the negative impact on developed economies is the smallest, developing economies the second largest, and transition economies the largest; and in the three categories of countries with different sizes, namely, small countries, medium-sized countries and large countries, the increase in financial dependence has a negative impact on economic growth. In terms of the path of influence, financial dependence affects economic growth through three channels: monetary policy, economic fluctuations, and financial markets, with financial markets having the greatest influence in this process, followed by economic fluctuations, and monetary policy being the weakest.

Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions such as building a diversified financial system, strengthening financial supervision and governance, promoting financial innovation, promoting economic restructuring, actively participating in international cooperation, implementing policies adapted to local conditions, strengthening financial education and cultivating financial technology compound talents, so as to deal with the possible negative impact of financial dependence on economic growth and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the economy.