金融学院知识库

作为金融业的三大支柱之一，银行业一直是国内外学者的研究目标。自2023年以来，国际上接连多家银行因经营不善而破产倒闭，其经营不善的主要原因在于银行资产负债期限错配、收入结构不合理致使流动性不足进而导致信用风险和流动性风险的增加。在破产的5家银行中，最多的便是中小规模银行。中小规模银行往往资产规模较小、客户群体相对单一，在遭受风险冲击时影响更为剧烈，因此中小规模银行的风险监管与风险防范问题尤为重要。

我国城市商业银行大多为中小规模银行，且受地域限制的影响其客户群体往往集中在某一地域，在当前存贷利差持续收紧的经济背景下，城市商业银行为保持竞争优势，被迫对存贷利差进一步收紧，这使其仅靠利息收入难以维持可持续发展，因此城市商业银行大多进行业务转型，依托线下线上开拓业务范围，借助数字经济进行转型升级，发展中间业务提升非利息收入，改善收入结构，实现收入结构多元化。

但由于城市商业银行自身特点及经济环境的影响，发展收入结构多元化是否会带来新的经营风险？为解决这一问题，本文首先通过资产组合理论、协同效应理论和多元化经营理论对其进行理论分析，通过分析得出城市商业银行发展收入结构多元化可能不会增加其自身经营风险，为验证该结论是否正确，本文以88家城市商业银行自2013年到2022年十年数据为样本，选择双固定效应模型对其进行实证分析，此外为获得进一步的研究结论，本文按照资产规模及所处经济区域对88家城市商业银行进行异质性分析，主要结论如下：第一，我国城市商业银行发展收入结构多元化能够降低其自身的经营风险；第二，不同资产规模的城市商业银行通过发展收入结构多元化降低其自身经营风险的效果存在差异，即资产规模越高，降低其经营风险的效果越好；第三，不同经济区域的城市商业银行发展收入结构多元化对其自身经营风险的影响有所不同，其中东部地区影响较小且并不显著，中部地区能够降低其自身的经营风险但显著性相对较弱，西部地区及东北地区能够显著降低其自身的经营风险；第四，不同资产规模、不同经济区域的城市商业银行发展收入结构多元化对其经营风险的影响不同，需审慎选择。

As one of the three pillars of the financial industry, the banking industry has always been a research goal for scholars both domestically and internationally. Since 2023, several international banks have gone bankrupt and closed down due to poor management. The main reasons for their poor management are mismatched asset liability terms and an unreasonable income structure, resulting in insufficient liquidity and an increase in credit and liquidity risks. Among the five bankrupt banks, the largest are small and medium-sized banks. Small and medium-sized banks often have smaller asset sizes and relatively single customer groups, which have a more severe impact when facing risk shocks. Therefore, risk supervision and prevention for small and medium-sized banks are particularly important.

Most urban commercial banks in our country are small and medium-sized banks, and their customer groups are often concentrated in a certain region due to geographical restrictions. In the current economic context of continuous tightening of deposit loan interest rate spreads, urban commercial banks are forced to further tighten deposit loan interest rate spreads to maintain their competitive advantage. This makes it difficult for them to maintain sustainable development solely based on interest income. Therefore, most urban commercial banks undergo business transformation, relying on offline and online expansion of business scope, leveraging the digital economy for transformation and upgrading, developing intermediary businesses to increase non interest income, improving income structure, and achieving diversified income structure.

But due to the characteristics of urban commercial banks and the impact of the economic environment, will diversified income structure development bring new operational risks? To address this issue, this article first conducts theoretical analysis through asset portfolio theory, synergy theory, and diversification theory. Through the analysis, it is concluded that the diversified income structure of urban commercial banks may not increase their own operational risks. To verify the correctness of this conclusion, this article uses data from 88 urban commercial banks from 2013 to 2022 as a sample and selects the double fixed effects model for empirical analysis. In addition, to obtain further research conclusions, this article conducts heterogeneity analysis on 88 urban commercial banks based on asset size and economic region. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the diversified income structure of urban commercial banks in China can reduce their own operational risks; Secondly, there are differences in the effectiveness of urban commercial banks with different asset sizes in reducing their own operational risks by diversifying their income structure. That is, the higher the asset size, the better the effect of reducing their operational risks; Thirdly, the diversified income structure of urban commercial banks in different economic regions has different impacts on their own operational risks. The impact in the eastern region is relatively small and not significant, while the central region can reduce its own operational risks but with relatively weak significance. The western and northeastern regions can significantly reduce their own operational risks; Fourthly, the diversified income structure of urban commercial banks with different asset sizes and economic regions has different impacts on their operational risks and needs to be carefully selected.