统计与数据科学学院知识库

乡村振兴是实现农业农村现代化的根本途径，其战略安排与建设社会主义现代化国家的时间节点相一致，其目标的实现不仅有助于解决农业农村发展不平衡不充分问题，也有利于我国全面建成社会主义现代化国家。为有效推进乡村振兴战略实施进程，实施乡村振兴绩效评价对于提升乡村振兴绩效管理水平尤其重要和必要。自乡村振兴战略提出以来，党中央高度重视乡村振兴的绩效考评，先后出台多项政策措施加强乡村振兴绩效考核力度。2021年4月，确立了《中华人民共和国乡村振兴促进法》，正式将乡村振兴绩效考评上升到法律层面，明确实行乡村振兴战略考核评价制度，要求各地区要建立客观反映乡村振兴战略进展的指标和统计体系。因此，乡村振兴绩效的考核和评价受到了学术界及实践部门的广泛关注。

为积极响应乡村振兴绩效评价的实际需求，本研究以乡村振兴绩效评价体系的构建与应用为研究主题，采用规范研究与实证研究相结合的方法，充分借鉴事实与价值相结合的公共政策评估理论，立足于乡村振兴目标达成和满意度双重视角，力求构建一套兼具理论性和实操性的乡村振兴绩效评价体系。本研究主要围绕乡村振兴绩效评价体系的评价框架、指标体系、评价标准、评价方法、实证应用五方面展开研究，具体安排如下：

第一，设计了以目标达成和满意度为导向的乡村振兴绩效评价框架。通过对国内外相关文献进行归纳和总结，全面掌握了现有研究进展和存在的不足，为本研究寻找出问题的切入点，设计了以目标达成和满意度为导向的乡村振兴绩效双轮评价框架。

第二，构建了以目标达成和满意度为导向的乡村振兴绩效评价指标体系。以乡村振兴绩效评价框架为指导，分别从评价指标库构建、绩效目标关键词提取、评价指标设计三方面分别设计乡村振兴目标达成评价指标体系和满意度评价指标体系。评价指标的筛选以备选指标库为基础，利用文本分析方法筛选中央级政策文件的的绩效目标关键词，以目标关键词词汇表与备选指标库相结合的方法筛选评价指标。

第三，补充了乡村振兴绩效评价标准。乡村振兴绩效评价体系包括目标达成度评价和满意度评价两方面，评价标准是有效判断乡村振兴目标实现进程的关键。目标达成评价体系的评价标准以发达国家或国内发达地区的农业农村发展历程为参照系，采用文献研究法、对比分析法和现实推导法确定了各指标2035年的目标值。满意度评价体系的满意度指标采用李克特五级量表法，依据乡村振兴战略“以人为本”的发展理念，以最大值作为目标值。

第四，完善了乡村振兴绩效评价方法体系。乡村振兴绩效评价方案设计是评价方法的开端，包括评价流程、问卷设计、调查方案、数据采集渠道等。从政策评估的角度分析乡村振兴绩效评价具有工具和价值双重属性，以此为基础分别构建乡村振兴目标达成评价方法和满意度评价方法。

第五，通过具体案例将评价体系应用于实践，实现了理论与实践的有机结合。本研究选择甘肃省进行实证研究，目标达成评价主要采用权威部门公开的统计数据，满意度评价主要采用问卷调查和实地访谈数据，实际调查过程中获取了甘肃省11个地州市2001份农户问卷和133份村级问卷。通过综合评价、结构方程模型等方法的实证检验，研究结论显示：甘肃省乡村振兴综合绩效指数为61.52%，总体均呈现“西高东低”的发展态势。乡村振兴目标达成度为51.03%，满意度为72%，目标达成进度缓慢且区域发展失衡，乡村振兴满意度总体表现一般，各地区乡村振兴满意度整体呈现“平庸化”态势。研究结论基本与现实相符，进一步说明本研究所构建的评价体系具有较好的适用性和可操作性。

本研究的创新点：第一，充实了乡村振兴绩效评价理论，建立了以目标达成和满意度为导向的乡村振兴绩效双轮评价框架。将“自上而下”的乡村振兴目标评价与“自下而上”的满意度评价相结合，进一步完善了以往乡村振兴绩效评价理论支撑不足，评价主体单一，公共价值评价缺失的不足。

第二，优化了乡村振兴绩效指标筛选方法，构建了以目标达成和满意度为导向的乡村振兴绩效评价指标体系。通过将备选指标库和目标关键词相结合的方法筛选指标，备选指标库筛选了理论界和实践部门现有的较为成熟的重要指标，目标关键词通过文本分析方法进行提取，较以往仅通过定性分析筛选指标的方法更为科学、严谨。

第三，完善了乡村振兴绩效评价标准，设置了乡村振兴绩效评价指标的目标值。充分借鉴了相关文献，以发达国家和国内发达地区的农业农村发展历程为参照系，通过现实推导法、对比分析法和文献研究法确定了2035年各指标的目标值，然后通过“当前值/目标值”的方法确定各指标的实现程度，进一步完善了乡村振兴绩效评价标准研究。

Rural revitalization is the fundamental approach to achieve modernization in agriculture and rural areas. Its strategic arrangement aligns with the timeline for constructing a socialist modernization state. Its realization not only helps address the imbalance and insufficiency in agricultural and rural development, but also contributes to the comprehensive construction of a socialist modernization state in China. To effectively promote the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, the implementation of rural revitalization performance evaluation is crucial and necessary to enhance the management level of rural revitalization performance. Since the proposal of the rural revitalization strategy, the central government has attached great importance to the performance evaluation of rural revitalization, issuing various policies and measures to strengthen the assessment efforts. In April 2021, the "People's Republic of China Rural Revitalization Promotion Law" was established, formally elevating the performance evaluation of rural revitalization to the legal level. The law clearly stipulates the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy evaluation and assessment system, requiring all regions to establish indicators and statistical systems that objectively reflect the progress of the rural revitalization strategy. Therefore, the assessment and evaluation of rural revitalization performance have received extensive attention from the academic community and practical sectors.

In response to the practical needs of rural revitalization performance evaluation, this study focuses on the construction and application of the rural revitalization performance evaluation system. It adopts a combined approach of normative research and empirical research, drawing on the integrated public policy evaluation theory that combines facts and values. Based on the dual perspectives of rural revitalization goal achievement and satisfaction, the study aims to construct a theoretical and practical rural revitalization performance evaluation system. The research is detailed in five aspects: evaluation framework, indicator system, evaluation criteria, method system, and empirical application.The specific arrangements are as follows:

Firstly, it designs a rural revitalization evaluation framework guided by goal achievement and satisfaction. Through summarizing and synthesizing relevant domestic and international literature, the study identifies the research focal points by comprehensively understanding the existing research progress and limitations. The study proposes a dual-oriented rural revitalization performance evaluation framework focusing on goal achievement and satisfaction.

Secondly, it constructs a goal-oriented and satisfaction-based rural revitalization performance evaluation indicator system. Guided by the rural revitalization performance evaluation framework, the study designs indicator systems for goal achievement evaluation and satisfaction evaluation, respectively, focusing on three aspects: construction of the evaluation indicator library, extraction of performance goal keywords, and design of evaluation indicators. The selection of evaluation indicators is based on the alternative indicator library. The study uses text analysis methods to extract keywords related to performance goals from central policy documents and combines these keywords with the alternative indicator library to screen evaluation indicators.

Thirdly, it supplements the criteria for rural revitalization performance evaluation and sets the target values for the evaluation indicators. The rural revitalization performance evaluation system includes goal achievement evaluation and satisfaction evaluation. Evaluation criteria are crucial for effectively judging the progress of rural revitalization goals. The evaluation criteria for the goal achievement evaluation system are based on the agricultural and rural development history of developed countries or domestic developed regions, and the target values of each indicator by 2035 are determined using literature research, comparative analysis, and practical deduction methods.The satisfaction evaluation system adopts the Likert five-point scale method. Following the development philosophy of "people-oriented" in the rural revitalization strategy, the maximum value is set as the target value for satisfaction indicators.

Fourthly, it refines the method system for rural revitalization performance evaluation. The design of the rural revitalization performance evaluation scheme marks the beginning of the evaluation methods, including evaluation processes, questionnaire design, survey plans, and data collection channels. The study analyzes the dual attributes of rural revitalization performance evaluation from the perspective of policy assessment, laying the foundation for constructing rural revitalization goal achievement evaluation methods and satisfaction evaluation methods.

Finally, the study applies the evaluation system to practice through specific cases, achieving an organic integration of theory and practice. Gansu Province is selected for empirical application research. The goal achievement evaluation  mainly uses authoritative department's publicly available statistical data for research. The satisfaction evaluation obtains 2001 questionnaires from farmers and 133 questionnaires from villages in 11 prefectures and cities in Gansu Province through questionnaire surveys and field interviews. Through the empirical test of comprehensive evaluation, structural equation model and other methods, the research conclusion shows that the comprehensive performance index of rural revitalization in Gansu province is 61.52%, showing a trend of "high in the west and low in the east". The degree of achievement of the rural revitalization goal was 51.03%, and the satisfaction rate was 72%. The progress of achieving the goal was slow and the regional development was unbalanced. The overall performance of the satisfaction rate of rural revitalization was average, and the overall satisfaction rate of rural revitalization in all regions showed a trend of "mediocrity". The research conclusions are basically consistent with reality, which further indicates that the evaluation system constructed in this study has good applicability and operability.

Innovation of this study: Firstly, it enriches the theoretical foundation of rural revitalization performance evaluation by establishing a dual-oriented rural revitalization performance evaluation framework focusing on goal achievement and satisfaction. By combining the "top-down" evaluation of rural revitalization goals with the "bottom-up" evaluation of satisfaction, the study addresses the shortcomings of the previous rural revitalization performance evaluation theories, such as inadequate theoretical support, single evaluation subjects, and missing public value evaluation.

Secondly, it optimizes the method of screening rural revitalization performance indicators and constructs a goal-oriented and satisfaction-based rural revitalization performance evaluation indicator system. By combining the alternative indicator library with performance goal keywords, the study selects mature and important indicators from the theoretical and practical sectors. The method of extracting keywords from texts enhances the scientific rigor of indicator selection compared to previous methods relying solely on qualitative analysis.

Thirdly, it enhances the criteria for rural revitalization performance evaluation and sets the target values for the evaluation indicators. Drawing on relevant literature and the development history of agriculture and rural areas in developed countries, the study uses realistic deduction methods, comparative analysis methods, and literature research methods to determine the target values of indicators in 2035. Then, the study assesses the degree of achievement of each indicator by using the ratio of the current value to the target value, further improving the research on rural revitalization performance evaluation criteria.