统计与数据科学学院知识库

摘 要

  改革开放以来，人口红利在我国经济持续高速发展进程中起到重要的推动作用。但是随着经济社会不断发展，老龄化水平日渐深化，人口红利逐渐消失，社会养老压力加大。当前，积极应对人口老龄化已经上升为国家战略，在党的二十大报告中，再次强调了实施积极应对人口老龄化的重要性与必要性。我国经济已经转向高质量发展阶段，积极应对人口老龄化，让不可逆转的人口老龄化推动经济高质量发展是我国当前亟需解决的问题。因此，本文旨在研究我国各省份老龄化对经济高质量发展的具体影响，进而为我国健全人口发展战略、实现经济发展提质增效提供一定的价值参考。

  文章首先对我国各省份经济高质量发展水平进行了测度，并对人口老龄化与经济高质量发展水平展开现状、区域差异与动态演进分析。其次，构建面板回归模型，深入研究了老龄化对经济高质量发展的影响效应，并在此基础上探讨了其影响的异质性。最后，厘清了两者之间的作用机理，探析了老龄化对经济高质量发展的传导机制。

  基准回归结果表明，人口老龄化尚未对经济高质量发展产生负向影响，且总体上对经济高质量发展起到了一定的促进作用，此外，这种促进效应受区域、时期、老龄化水平与经济发展质量的不同存在异质性。为了进一步考察老龄化对经济高质量发展的作用路径，从劳动力供给、人力资本、产业结构升级三个角度展开机制分析。结果表明，老龄化程度加剧显著削弱了我国的劳动力供给，对产业结果升级存在一定的负向影响，但对人力资本存在显著的促进作用，老龄化通过影响以上三个机制变量进而间接影响地区经济高质量发展水平。最后，基于实证分析，从明确地区差异、充分挖掘老年人力资源、大力推进教育发展、加快科技创新等方面提出促进我国经济发展提质增效的对策。

关键词：人口老龄化 经济高质量发展 异质性分析 机制检验

Abstract

    Since the reform and opening up, population dividends have played an important role in promoting the sustained and high-speed development of China's economy. However, with the continuous development of economic society, the level of aging is deepening, the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, and the pressure on social pension is increasing. Currently, actively addressing population aging has become a national strategy. In the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the importance and necessity of implementing an active response to population aging have been emphasized again. China's economy has turned to a stage of high-quality development, and actively responding to population aging and allowing irreversible population aging to promote high-quality economic development are currently urgent issues to be addressed in China. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to study the specific impact of aging on high-quality economic development in various provinces of China, and to provide a valuable reference for improving China's population development strategy and achieving quality and efficiency in economic development.

    The article first measures the level of high-quality economic development in various provinces in China, and analyzes the current situation, regional differences, and dynamic evolution of population aging and high-quality economic development. Secondly, a panel regression model was constructed to conduct in-depth research on the impact of aging on high-quality economic development, and on this basis, the heterogeneity of its impact was explored. Finally, it clarifies the interaction mechanism between the two, and explores the transmission mechanism of aging on high-quality economic development.

    The benchmark regression results indicate that population aging has not yet had a negative impact on high-quality economic development, and overall has played a certain promoting role in promoting high-quality economic development. In addition, this promoting effect is heterogeneous due to differences in region, period, aging level, and economic development quality. In order to further investigate the role of aging in high-quality economic development, a mechanism analysis is conducted from three perspectives: labor supply, human capital, and industrial structure upgrading. The results indicate that the intensification of aging significantly weakens China's labor supply, has a certain negative impact on the upgrading of industrial results, but has a significant promoting effect on human capital. Aging indirectly affects the high-quality development level of regional economy by influencing the above three mechanism variables. Finally, based on empirical analysis, countermeasures are proposed to promote the improvement of quality and efficiency in China's economic development from the perspectives of clarifying regional differences, fully tapping into elderly human resources, vigorously promoting education development, and accelerating technological innovation.

Keywords: Aging population; High-quality economic development; Heterogeneity analysis; Mechanism testing