统计与数据科学学院知识库

    随着世界经济全球化和区域经济一体化的不断深入，城市间经济协作逐渐成为21世纪全球以及区域竞争的主要载体。城市与区域之间相互依存，相互推进。在中国现行社会主义市场经济机制下，中心城市与区域内其他城市相比具有更为重要的作用，主导着区域经济的发展，其辐射带动能力的强弱决定了区域经济发展的速度和质量。

    兰州作为西部重要的区域中心城市，也是甘肃省唯一的中心城市，近年来经济增长较快，发展活力明显增强，城市辐射能力也日益提高。习近平总书记在黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展座谈会上的重要讲话，指明兰州应加快建设现代化中心城市。为此，本文根据区域经济学相关理论，以兰州市综合辐射能力为主要研究内容，基于“经济发展水平、科技文化水平、城市规模、对外开放、对外联系能力”五个维度，共选取28个相关指标构建兰州市辐射能力综合评价指标体系，采用层次分析法计算了兰州市辐射能力综合排名，通过断裂点模型以及场强模型测算兰州城市辐射范围及辐射能力的强弱，选取灰色关联度模型分析影响兰州市辐射能力的各个因素，从而全面认识和把握了兰州市在城市辐射过程中存在的突出问题，并提出促进其辐射能力提升的对策建议，这有助于提高兰州城市发展水平，推进甘肃以至西部地区经济社会的协调发展。通过上述分析研究，得到以下相关结论：

①兰州市综合辐射能力在2009-2019年间总体呈现上升趋势，在增长幅度上升方面，经济发展水平增长幅度最快；其次是科技文化水平以及对外开放水平；城市规模和对外联系能力上升幅度较小。

②通过对兰州与重庆、成都、西安、银川、乌鲁木齐、西宁六个城市的对比分析发现：兰州在经济发展水平处于中下游水平；在科技文化水平方面，稳定在中等水平；在城市规模方面，除重庆以外，包含兰州在内的其他六个城市差距不大；在对外开放水平方面，虽未在排在前列，但近年来提升较为明显，在对外联系能力方面，处于中等水平。

③兰州市的辐射范围在不断扩大，而且辐射范围方向性更加明显，综合辐射范围在向西和向东即西宁、银川以及西安方向呈现扩张趋势，在向南即成都和重庆方向呈现收缩趋势。

④兰州市综合辐射能力与各因素均呈现正相关关系，从一级指标来看，对外联系能力和经济发展水平对兰州辐射能力影响最大，其次是科技文化水平，而对外开放对兰州市辐射能力影响最小。具体来看，排名前三的指标分别是地区生产总值、货运总量以及邮电业务总量，三者影响程度非常接近；其次是固定资产投资、科研经费投入、专利授权数，分别排第四、五、六位；进出口总额和旅游人数关联度较低，排第七和第八位。

    根据上述研究发现，兰州市存在的突出问题是：总体经济实力不强；科技创新能力不足；交通区位优势有待改善；对外开放程度不高。

    据此提出推进兰州市辐射能力的建议为：优化产业结构；打造综合交通枢纽；加快数字智能化基础设施建设；营造科技文化创新氛围；升级人才引进模式；改善投融资环境。

    As the world economy globalization and deepening of regional economic integration, economic cooperation among cities gradually become the world's leading carriers, as well as regional competition in 21st century. Interdependence between cities and regions, promote each other. Under the existing mechanism of socialist market economy in China, relative to the general city in the region, the center city dominates the economy development of the region. Their radiating strength determines the speed and quality of regional economic development.

    As an important central city in the West and the only regional central city in Gansu Province, Lanzhou has witnessed rapid economic growth, significantly enhanced development vitality and increasingly improved urban radiation capacity in recent years. The General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that Lanzhou should speed the progress of the construction of a modern city at the Symposium on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of the Yellow River Basin. The article takes the comprehensive radiation capacity of Lanzhou as the main research contents according to relative theory of the regional economics. Based on the level of the economy development, science technology and culture level, scale of the city, opening-up, external contact ability, a total of 28 relevant indicators are selected to build a comprehensive evaluation index system of Lanzhou's radiation capacity. The comprehensive ranking of Lanzhou's radiation capacity is calculated by using analytic hierarchy process. The radiation range and radiation capacity of Lanzhou are calculated by using the fracture point model and field strength model. The grey correlation model is selected to analyze various factors affecting Lanzhou's radiation capacity, So as to comprehensively understand and grasp the prominent problems existing in the process of urban radiation in Lanzhou, and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the improvement of its radiation capacity, which will help to improve the urban development level of Lanzhou and promote the coordinated economic and social development of Gansu and even the western region. Through the above analysis and research, the following relevant conclusions are obtained:

①From 2009 to 2019, the comprehensive radiation capacity of Lanzhou showed a upward trend. In terms of the growth rate, the growth rate of economic development level was the fastest; The second is the level of science, technology and culture and the level of opening to the outside world; The scale of the city and its ability to connect with the outside world increased slightly.

②Compared Lanzhou to Chongqing, Chengdu, Xi’an, Yinchuan, Urumqi and Xining, it is found that the Lanzhou is in the middle and lower reaches of economic development level; In terms of scientific, technological and cultural level, it is stable at the medium level; In terms of urban scale, there is little gap between the other six cities, including Lanzhou, except Chongqing; In terms of the level of opening to the outside world, although it is not in the forefront, it has improved significantly in recent years and is at a medium level in terms of external relations.

③The radiation range is expanding constantly, with the directionality of the radiation range is more obvious. The comprehensive radiation range shows an expansion trend in the West and East, i.e. Xining, Yinchuan and Xi'an, and a contraction trend in the south, i.e. Chengdu and Chongqing.

④There is a positive correlation between Lanzhou's comprehensive radiation capacity and various factors. From the perspective of primary indicators, the level of external relations and economic development have the greatest impact on Lanzhou's radiation capacity, followed by the level of science, technology and culture, and the opening-up has the least impact on Lanzhou's radiation capacity. Specifically, the top three indicators are regional GDP, total freight volume and total post and telecommunications business volume, and the impact of the three is very close; Followed by investment in fixed assets, investment in scientific research funds and number of patents, ranking fourth, fifth and sixth respectively; The correlation between the total import and export volume and the number of tourists is low, ranking seventh and eighth.

     According to the above research findings, the prominent problems existing in Lanzhou are: the overall economic strength is not strong; Lack of scientific and technological innovation ability; The advantages of traffic location need to be improved; The degree of opening to the outside world is not high.

   Accordingly, the suggestions to promote the radiation capacity of Lanzhou are as follows: optimize the industrial structure; Build a comprehensive transportation hub; Accelerate the construction of digital intelligent infrastructure; Create an atmosphere of scientific, technological and cultural innovation; Upgrade the talent introduction mode; Improve the investment and financing environment.