统计与数据科学学院知识库

本文研究了产业联动视角下黄河流域高质量发展路径。依据国家相关部门的规定及学者们的研究结论，对黄河流域上中下游进行了划分，根据黄河流域生态环境与经济社会的现状，探究黄河流域发展现状的内在成因。从产业视角依据差异系数测算出观测年份黄河流域89个市（州、盟）产业结构差异系数；依据区位熵计算公式利用各地区19个产业的从业人员数测算出产业区位熵；使用灰色关联分析方法测算各地区产业联动水平。使用地理加权回归模型（GWR）来探究2008-2018年近十年黄河流域产业结构差异、产业区位熵、人均地区生产总值、人口数、社会零售商品销售总额、公路货运量对产业联动水平空间影响效应的变化趋势。研究结果如下：

黄河流域上中下游自然资源、要素资源、基础设施建设等方面差异显著，黄河流域上游自然资源丰富，矿物资源、能源存储量高于中下游，但是就要素资源来看，黄河上游人力资源、经济发展水平、路网密度明显低于中下游。产业结构方面，全流域以第二产业为主，从黄河上游至下游，第三产业占地区生产总值的比重呈逐渐增大的趋势，产业布局趋于合理。流域产业区位熵标准差近十年变化不大，传统行业如农林牧渔业、采矿业受地区自然资源的影响，地区间区位熵相差较大，新兴行业如金融业、房地产行业由于区位一体化发展战略地区间区位熵相差较小。研究发现目前黄河流域产业联动水平不高，部分产业在相对发达地区正形成集聚，造成产业联动水平低。一些相对落后地区虽然产业合作大于竞争，但受制于自身条件产业联动水平低。近十年来产业联动发展影响因素的影响效应存在着空间分异，具体来看，产业结构差异对产业联动影响效应水平高的地区呈东进的趋势，产业区位熵对产业联动影响效应水平高的地区呈由中间向东西两边扩散的趋势、地区人均生产总值对产业联动影响效应水平高的地区呈先向西集聚后向东扩散的发展趋势、人口数对产业联动影响效应水平高的地区呈向西集聚的趋势、社会消费品零售总额对产业联动影响效应水平高的地区呈东进的趋势、公路货运量对产业联动影响效应水平高的地区呈缩减并向西集聚的趋势。

In this paper, by the industry linkage perspective, investigating the methods of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. According to the national regulation and authoritative scholars’ research conclusion, divide the Yellow River into three parts and analysis the current situation of environment and economy. Using the industrial structure similarity coefficient, calculating coefficient of industrial structure difference about 89 cities (autonomous prefectures, leagues).On the basis of location entropy formula, calculating location entropy of 19 industries. Grey correlation analysis method is used to measure the degree of industrial linkage among regions. Considering the variables exist space heterogeneity, by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore last nearly ten years the trend of space heterogeneity about industrial structure, industry location entropy, the per capita GDP, Population, social total retail sales of impact on the level of industrial linkage effects, highway traffic volume. The results of the study are as follows:

The natural resources and infrastructure constructions have significant difference in the Yellow River Basin, The Yellow River upstream, abundant natural resources, mineral resources, energy is higher than that of the middle and lower reaches, But for elements of resources, The Yellow River upstream of human resources, economic development level, road network density is significantly lower than the middle and lower reaches. Whole basin is given priority to with the second industry, from the Yellow River upstream to the downstream, the tertiary industry accounted for the proportion of GDP is increased, Industrial layout is more reasonable. In the last ten years, industrial location entropy of basin change a little. Now the Yellow River industrial linkage not conspicuous, Some industries in some developed areas are formed agglomeration situation. Although some backward area industrial cooperation is more than the competition, but in the low level. For nearly ten years, industry linkage influence factors have a changing effect on the spatial distribution, the specific terms, the areas that the impact of industrial structure difference coefficient in high level show an eastward trend, the areas that the impact of industrial location entropy in high level appear a middle diffuses to the both sides trend, the areas that the impact of per capita GDP in high level appear a west gathered then spread eastward trend, the areas that the impact of population in high level show an agglomerate together then to west trend, the areas that the impact of total retail sales of social consumer goods in high level show an eastward trend, the areas that the impact of highway freight volume in high level appear a shrink and then westward trend.